Stock Market Crisis

October 10, 2008

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Whats Driving the Stock Market Chaos??

Denninger Speaks… – Thank you.

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What The Media *Didn’t* Cover

So yesterday the “news” was all about the long end of the Treasury curve rocketing higher (yield), which many people believe is about “risk acceptance” and The Fed (along with other central banks) cutting rates by 50 basis points.

Uh huh.

Let’s talk about what’s really going on.

First, our rates. The EFF (Effective Fed Funds) rate has been trading at 1.5% now for a couple of weeks. Two percent schmoo percent; a target rate only in name is no target at all. In reality the 50 bips cut, even though it resulted in an instantaneous 40 handle rocket shot in the /ES futures Wednesday morning, was entirely a CONfidence game (with the emphasis on “Con”!)

The RTS (Russian Market) is down 87% YTD, and is closed until further notice. The Nikkei is trading below the DOW – that’s not good. Indonesia’s stock market was shuttered Wednesday and remains closed after tripping “lock limits” within 90 minutes of the opening bell. As of Thursday morning the RTS was closed again after Putin allegedly strong-armed a whole bunch of Russian wealthy to “stick it in” (to the stock market); this sort of v-fib in a market does horrifyingly bad things to ordinary investors who find themselves out just before the market rockets higher without underlying economic cause.

Iceland has essentially melted down. Their currency went straight into the toilet and two of the three largest banks were nationalized – all in the space of 24 hours. The culprit? Bad loans. Where have we seen this movie before?

Mexico’s peso has fallen some 40% in days against the dollar. Great if you’re traveling there as an American. Sucks severely if you’re a Mexican. That alleged fence on our southern border is going to need reinforcements.

Wednesday morning Britain and the EU zone all announced major bank rescue operations. Same deal – “throw money at it, paper it over.”

Nowhere a mention of forcing balance sheet transparency and truth.

Except in one place – here in the US! Plans to standardize CDS contracts and force them onto an exchange are actually under way. This is a major positive move and fulfills one of the three prongs of my view of how to solve this problem, once implemented. We’ll see how much pushback we get, and whether OTC derivatives are actually banned (as they should be), or whether the big trading houses and banks insist on being able to play “pick pocket” along side the “regulated” world.

The NY Fed announced plans to extend a further $39.6 billion credit line to AIG. The tab is now almost $120 billion dollars. Where did the other $80 billion go? Has it been vaporized trying to raise capital to pay down CDS contracts that have gone the wrong way on them?

Speaking of which, Thursday is D-Day – D standing for either “derivative” or, if things go sideways on people, “detonation.”

See, this is the day that Lehman’s CDS contracts are supposed to be resolved. Since Lehman’s bonds are trading at ~20-30% recovery (horrible, on balance) the writers may have to fork up 60 to 70 cents on the dollar.

The $64,000 question is how many of those contracts net out. The real liability is what’s left once everything is “balanced” (a long and short held by the same guy net to zero, assuming that both contracts are “money good”, leaving the holder with no liability – and no asset)

This has the potential to be a big “nothingburger”, a minor tremor, or a 250′ high tsunami that washes over Lower Manhattan (and the City) tomorrow. There’s no good way to know in advance which outcome will manifest, since nobody (at present) knows what the true netted-out open interest is. This is one of the problems with not having a public exchange; lack of knowledge.

The bright light of reality will shine tomorrow……

The architects of this, by the way, are the folks who took the cuffs off the banks, going back to the Gramm-Leach-Bailey law and the repeal, piece-by-piece prior but finished by GLBA, of Glass-Steagall. GLBA, by the way, was passed in 1999 – just as the Internet bubble was in full force. Coincidence? No. The root cause of this mess? Right there. Thank Congress, and make sure you include those members who have been around for the entire thing, including John McCain.

On the equity market side shorting is once again available, the order having expired. The lack of shorts was a definite factor in the stiff selloff that we’ve seen, and Chris Cox owes investors in America an apology – on the air. This was an objectively stupid decision, as shorts provide necessary liquidity during serious downturns. Without them you get “no bid” circumstances, and they sporadically appeared during the last few days in financials, which certainly exacerbated the selloff.

In the bond markets Treasury refunded some “off the run” bonds and got an ugly surprise – the market didn’t want them. They had to pay a 40 bips “tail” to get them to go, which may be the start of a really troublesome trend. See, Treasury is now throwing over $100 billion a week into the market, and this only works on days when the market is crashing. THEN you can get people to suck up all you puke out, but the rest of the time you’re going to have to pay up, and Treasury has had to do so – dearly.

This may be the start of the “bond market dislocation” that I have long feared. I hope and pray not, but if this trend continues Treasury is going to find that it cannot sell its debt into the market without slamming rates higher, especially on the long end of the curve, which means an instantaneous implosion of what’s left in the housing market.

The ugly is that 3-month LIBOR widened today, as did the TED Spread. Both should have come in. They did not. LIBOR is essentially unsecured lending and the bad news is that a lot of corporate (and some personal) borrowing is indexed off it. If you are, you’re screwed.

Why has LIBOR refused to come in despite these “coordinated” effort? Its simple: the underlying trust issue has not been addressed, and nobody is seriously proposing to do so.

Paulson and Bernanke now are truly caught in the box, as I have been talking about for more than a year. As they introduce and fund these silly programs like the “TARP” each new program produces more foreclosures by depressing home values and thus tightens the spiral.

See, as long rates go up house prices go down, since the value of a home for most people is Dependant on what they can finance, and that is directly related to interest rates. Get out your HP12C and run the principal value change for a fixed payment if interest rates change from 6% to 8% or 10% – that’s the impact on the value of your house from these changes that are occurring in the Treasury marketplace.

This outcome is what I warned of in “Our Mortgage Mess” back in April of this year; a potential ramping of borrowing costs for government debt, which will not only make sustaining government spending (and perhaps government operation) impossible, but in addition destroy private credit by driving costs in the private sector skyward as well.

Simply put, the “TARP” or “EESA” must be repealed here and now.

It is unacceptable to risk Treasury Funding destruction in order to bail out some bankers. And make no mistake – there is and will be no benefit to taxpayers.

We are also now entering into earnings season, and Alcoa was a warning blast. They missed badly. That won’t be the last.

This is the “value trap” problem that many investors fall into. You see the market down 30% and think its a great buying opportunity.

It is a great buying opportunity only if earnings going forward can be sustained. But in this case, they cannot. It is flatly impossible; with Treasury borrowing money like a madman, tacking on more than 20% to the national debt in the space of months, carrying costs will inevitably rise as will taxes. Both of these have a multiplier effect (in the wrong direction) on corporate profits, and in addition the “faux profits” from financial engineering have all disappeared at the same time.

The S&P 500’s profit, in terms of gross dollars, are almost certainly going to come in by 50% from the highs, and that assumes we get a garden-variety recession and not something worse. This of course puts “Fair Value” on the SPX down around 750, or another 25% down from here.

The ugly stick potential is what I discussed yesterday, and that risk is very real. Treasury borrowing cost ramps can produce a 1930s-style dislocation in credit, and if it happens then you will see mass bankruptcies not only in corporate America but among individuals as well as borrowing costs ramp to the point of shutting down the marketplace for credit.

Treasury and Bernanke claimed that “credit markets seized”; this is only half-true. Credit markets always close to those who are lying, because there is no reason to loan someone money if you’re not reasonably sure you will get paid back.

But there is a second form of seizure and this is the frying pan into which we’ve now jumped – that is a credit market that prices beyond what the market can bear at its imputed rate of return. In that market credit is available but it does not matter, as you can’t make enough profit to generate a positive carry on the borrowed money, and consumers in that environment fall into a vortex of interest payments that spiral faster than they can borrow to stay ahead of them.

That rabbit hole is how we got the 1930s, and it is the danger we now face. Congress was in fact conned by Treasury, George W. Bush and the banking industry (including Ben Bernanke), who instead of forcing the malefactors into the open and exposing those who were bankrupt (or just plain corrupt – notice the common stem on both words?) threw them a line – unfortunately, the line is cleated to the entire economy of the United States, and they have enough negative buoyancy to drag us all under the waves.

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Analysis: This is one of many opinions floating around all over the cyberspace regarding the latest downward spiral in the stock market. The consensus is clear; a few operatives with a major stake in the gamut of the financial world are driving the mania for their profiteering with utter disregard for the rest of the population around the world.

It is time for the people of the United States and around the world to rise to the occasion and intervene as the snowballing of losses in market shares is not a natural event. Clearly, this kind of manufactured, well-orchestrated and premeditated mechanism is the result of greed, corruption and cronyism that is rampant and has now come to surface.

Not surprisingly, there is no investigation or reports by the media as the Corporations, the de facto beneficiaries own them. The world must awaken now and deal with the reality to bring all of these entities to justice. It is time to make every one of them accountable for their actions and inaction as well as make them absorb all of the losses generated by their devious “modus operandi”.

The current situation is not an isolated occurrence. The cause and effect factor is evident in the existing stock market turmoil. As suggested earlier, the unethical practices resulting from the lack of accountability and oversight is contributing to the pandemonium in the market worldwide with the infusion of the “survival of the fittest” theory.

The world is shocked and in despair, seeing no end to the plundering of wealth that rightfully belongs to the righteous and not the self-righteous. However, it is presumptuous of those involved in this mass abduction of world treasury that they will not be exposed and brought to spotlight.

Perhaps, Armageddon is the only alternative now to restore morality and world order. The degradation of principles, ethics and democratic values by the ruling power will not escape the judicial verdict.

Therefore, it is in the best interest of all those involved in the conspiracy to come forward and demonstrate figment of integrity by stabilizing the stock market decline or be prepared to deal with the wrath of natural phenomenon.

Further, to those entities responsible for the current economic disaster, “the end justifies the means”.
Any attempt to ignore the warning will be an invitation to their peril.

If the authorities in power fail to exercise diligence, proper management, and immediate interventional policies to stabilize the market, they will share similar destiny as the recently convicted O.J. Simpson.

The judicial mantle seized by the power is in denial and defiance of the existence of force that will deliver justice.

The mortals brought nothing upon their birth hence; take nothing upon death.

Thank you.

Padmini Arhant

Written by Padmini Arhant · Filed Under Business | Leave a Comment 

Investment Prospects

October 8, 2008

Existing and potential investors should view the current stock market situation as an excellent opportunity for investments in different sectors. They range from blue chips to housing and manufacturing industry. All sectors are bound to get a major boost from innovative technology and major breakthroughs in science this year alone.

With the energy crisis, there is great enthusiasm and capital infusion into manufacturing clean and green energy products. The automotive and energy companies are involved in research and development in deriving energy independent solutions to the global problem.

The recent legislation of the “rescue” plan involving tax credits for solar and wind based manufacturing companies is a window to promote renewable energy products and services. This is one of the best measures by Congress and deserves praise for the action. It must also ensure that the tax credit benefit trickles down to retail consumers as well. More is required in addressing serious environmental issues at both national and global front.

Despite the doom and gloom in the housing sector, all those investors with surplus cash have enormous opportunity to invest in real estate for long-term gains and perhaps contribute to the revival of the housing market. The energy sector is involved in alternative energy programs to combat the global energy crisis. Therefore, there are opportunities in this industry as well.

The technology sector is robust with a wide range of activities throughout the industry. The high tech companies are competing with one another in the innovative technology areas such as high -end microprocessors other hardware and software products challenging the technological pace more than ever.

There is never a dull moment in the biotech industry with major breakthroughs in modern medicine like “sequencing DNA and Human Genome Project”. The stem cell research is another area drawing deserving attention and investments. The pharmaceutical companies’ progress in research and development of new drugs is in synchronization with the biotech advancement.

The finance sector is not going to fall apart as they are the “gateway” to the flourishing of “commercial sectors”. The financial institutions with necessary regulations and stopgap measures are attractive in many ways. It must address the foreclosures effectively and cooperate with the government in expediting the financial liquidity in the housing and commercial sectors.

Investors must get into a buying frenzy and not the other way around, as the prospects are far greater in the near future and an opportunity for people of the United States to own their assets rather than leaving it for foreign venture capital.

The United States as a nation has never failed in its endeavors and will never fail now or in the future. It is important for the people of the United States to restore confidence in their ability to rebuild a great nation that has accepted a great many challenges in the past, emerged successful in all frontiers and shared the progress and prosperity with the rest of the world.

The present time may appear to be tough but this nation has sailed through rough seas and the “Superpower” status is testimony to the resilience and intellectual power of the people.

The United States has every reason to be proud of all its achievements. The future ahead of us is bright, with a remarkable work force prepared to overcome all obstacles in their path to success and glory.

Thank you.

Padmini Arhant

Written by Padmini Arhant · Filed Under Business, Economy, Featured | Leave a Comment 

Economic Security

September 28, 2008

The legislators are currently addressing the financial crisis confronting our nation and it appears that a consensus has been reached to bailout the Corporations from the burden of bad debts. According to the lawmakers, the “bill” is structured to largely benefit the taxpayers and assist with the stabilization of the financial market.

It is important to recognize the fact that the twenty first century economy is a global economy and the investments are tied to one another directly or indirectly and traded in the global markets. Therefore, it is vital for the U.S. economy to remain stable and provide necessary market assurance to both domestic and foreign investors with stakes in U.S. investments.

The other important factor for the unprecedented government intervention in a “free market” environment is to eliminate loopholes to avert such catastrophe in the future. When the actual agreement proposal is presented to the taxpayers, it should reflect the absolute protection of the taxpayer’s funds and profitable return on any investments.

At the same time, politics should not take precedence over “American taxpayers” interest in terms of “Appropriation of funds” for a certain political faction like “ACORN” or for that matter a “private sector” from the “Wall Street” with any misrepresentation to provide insurance on the “mortgage backed” securities with no prospective buyer in sight.

The “bill” must include provisions for full disclosure of the deals regardless of the nature and size of the bailout amount.

Further, it is essential for the “impending bill” to fund the bailout in “installments” rather than a lump sum settlement as it would indicate the initial results on the venture carried out on a “trial and error” basis. This would also allow public opinion to analyze the “pros and cons” of such investment and facilitate the required liquidity in the financial market with a “majority” approval.

The task ahead of our nation is to restore economic security with the revival of the “housing” and “job” market. As stated earlier, the “housing market” crisis is directly related to the “credit crunch” and “subprime mortgage” failure leading to “foreclosures” and that could be resolved by overhauling the lending practices and assisting the “homeowners” with affordable revised mortgage package. The foreclosed homes should be made available for sale to potential investors with verifiable income and credit history.

Commercial lending should resume freely yet carefully to promote and revitalize the small businesses and Corporations relying on credit for the growth and development in the job market. The flow of goods and services without any disruption will contribute to the anticipated growth and help the nation in reducing the multi-trillion dollar debt due to trade and budget deficit which otherwise will be the inevitable burden on the next and future generation.

It is time to focus on this crisis as “national” rather than “individual” and collectively deal with the issue for a better future of all.

Thank you.

Padmini Arhant

Written by Padmini Arhant · Filed Under Economy, Featured | Leave a Comment 

Economic Crisis

September 25, 2008

Our nation is currently experiencing a deep financial crisis due to major financial institutions, investment banks and insurance industry failure.

It all started crumbling like the house of cards beginning with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, AIG and others in line with bad loans from the sub-prime mortgage crisis.

The economic meltdown in late 2006 precipitated nationwide housing market decline with saturated equity borrowing.

The entire network in the real estate and financial sector with hedge fund managers, underwriters, financial institutions processing the mortgage applications, mortgage brokers, realtors, homebuyers and sellers were primarily interested and vigorously involved in promoting and wrapping the deal with minimal and/or non-compliance of the standard rules and regulations that are specifically set up to avert such catastrophe.

The housing market bubble eventually burst contributing to credit crunch and massive foreclosures across the nation.

The commercial sectors were also hit in the process due to lenders streamlining measures and Congress legislation in an effort to slow down the escalating credit crisis.

Subsequently the ripple effect was felt in the job market with small businesses and medium size corporations struggling to maintain their credit limit from the sharp increase in interest rates on the borrowings and capital depletion essential for survival in the highly competitive market economy.

Meanwhile, some investors diverted their attention from real estate to stock market for short-term gains and as a result certain stocks earned the preferred status in stock value despite any performance history.

The stock market was warming up with superficially inflated stock prices along with futures trade speculation on oil stocks mostly responsible for the crude oil price elevation triggering the sensitive energy crisis.

At the top level, the monetary authority and incumbent administration as the economic growth and development oversight implemented policies including lowering of prime rates to an unprecedented level in recent times creating opportunities for financial institutions to outreach borrowers with no solid credit history.

The executive branch euphemism to display patriotism through home ownership factored for unscrupulous practices in the housing market debacle.

It has further come to light that some legislators are beneficiaries of personal financial deals as VIP PATRONS of the failed financial institutions such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers and more.

However, it does not exclude Presidential contenders’ campaign advisors confirmed to be the financial institutions’ lobbyists/former executives enlarging the oversight conflict of interest.

Hence proving the theory….corruption and cronyism thrives in economic and political systems.

Strategy:

The government proposal to bail out these Corporations indulging in reckless undertakings with staggering $700 billion of American taxpayer’s money is currently debated in the House of Congress.

There is also anxiety over the executive branch cavalier approach for the clean bill immediate approval without tax payer investment protection or oversight for an unprecedented and historic venture.

The irony is the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve Bank with the primary responsibility to monitor and recommend any regulation in the financial sector is experiencing labor pain after nearly twenty two months gestation and demanding Congress to deliver regardless.

With current Presidential race in process, one has to hope that this situation does not lead to the controversial Pro-Life vs. Pro-Choice debate on the financial crisis.

Congress favoring Pro-Choice to ensure the bearers safety and security would be prudent particularly with taxpayers bankrolling Corporations bailout and their erroneous decisions.

The urgency to regulate the financial sector granting unilateral authority to an individual – the Treasury Secretary with a sum approximately equivalent to Argentina and Chile’s combined GDP arouses legitimate skepticism among legislators on both sides of the aisle.

Some of them reminisce the current administration’s similar demand prior to invasion and occupation of Iraq.

Remedy:

Since the bailout is imminent and crucial for the stabilization of the financial markets, it is imperative for legislators to secure investments with conditional offers.

Several economists and experts have come forward and presented their thoughts and strategies for the existing national crisis.

1. The consensus among all of them is to establish an Independent Oversight with no Special Interests or Lobbyists infiltration posing conflict of interest.

2. Oversight Committee to approve after reviewing the proposal to invest in mortgage-backed securities to relieve the remaining financial institutions from the bad debts burden.

3. These securities purchase price carefully taken into consideration with a set profitable return upon instruments sale would be beneficial. It is also important to identify the buyers and sellers.

4. Open Bid transparency during investments’ sale or purchase is vital for investor confidence and value enhancement.

5. Corporate Executives pay off for poor judgment and weak performance eliminated as a precedence to existing and future Corporations heading in that direction would prevent repeat mistakes.

6. The hedge fund managers subjected to strict scrutiny and ethical standards is vital in addition to management fees and asset allocation determined in a manner to yield nothing less than profitable return to the investors i.e. the taxpayers.

7. Moratorium on foreclosures in bipartisanship agreement would relieve homeowners across the nation.

At the same time, the home owners to be evaluated on individual basis by the lenders with Oversight Committee alongside and encouraged to make payments equivalent to rental payments or interest only on revised mortgage package whatever is affordable.

Again, this offer made available only to the first home buyers dealing with foreclosures.

Successful sales and marketing of foreclosed homes to potential investors could expedite the housing market revival besides helping communities restore social and economic security through property taxes used for funding public school education and other services.

8. External audit on financial institutions listed as risky and brought to public focus would restrict undesirable activities.

9. The firewall resurrected between the commercial and investment banks protects public funds.

10. Sound and solid lending practices in both private and public sector would energize markets.

United States economy has proven record of accomplishments to rebound following crisis throughout the twentieth century.

The United States economy is resilient with a highly productive work force that has risen to the occasion and challenged the market forces acting against it.

The economic boom will resume and prosperity shared by the global markets.

The temporary turmoil in the market will be settled with prudent economic strategy, robust fiscal policy, leadership and confidence of the people of the United States of America.

Thank you.

Padmini Arhant

Written by Padmini Arhant · Filed Under Economy, Featured | Leave a Comment 

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