Reflection on the World Economic Forum – Davos, Switzerland

February 19, 2010

By Padmini Arhant

The World Economic Forum on January 27 – 31, 2010, at Davos, Switzerland contemplated the global economic crises.

Speakers from the large consortium expressed their thoughts and hope or the lack thereof about the global economic prospects at the annual meeting.

Summarizing the summit issues:

The general focus has been:

The economic recession.

The financial crisis and the need for financial reform.

U.S economy, the dollar, the deficits and the gridlock in Washington due to Special Interests’ control of Congress.

Skepticism on the EURO currency strength and concerns regarding European market from the economic struggles in Greece, Spain, Iceland, Ireland, Portugal, Latvia to name a few further exacerbated by the majority euro members surpassing the 3percent budget deficit cap, a criteria for the euro currency usage.

ECB (European Central Bank) role in easing the liquidity crisis.

UK urging banks to assume responsibility – i.e. resume credit to the frail economy.

National Debt from bailouts – A common symptom shared by the major global economies.

Emerging Markets’ potential in stimulating economic growth through international mergers and acquisitions.

Corporate leadership in risk undertaking, growth sustainability and resisting or embracing reform.

Technological impact on business and adapting social networking concept to promote global agenda.

Google – China controversy on hackers and censorship.

Green Technology and consensus on the climate change policy.

Humanitarian issues related to natural resources such as water scarcity, inadequate food supply in fighting hunger, poverty and disease worldwide.

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Economic Synopsis – By Padmini Arhant

Global economic recession – The general agreement is:

The massive capital interjection with public money in the private sector particularly the finance and the auto industry in the United States was essential in the year 2008 and 2009 to avert a major catastrophe – a full blown depression.

Following that, the bailed out bankers have supporters and cynicists to defend or vilify the mega rewards via executive bonuses amid severe financial meltdown mostly attributed to the current economic crisis.

Another contentious issue related to the financial sector is:

Should governments continue to bailout banks under the banner?

“Too Big to Fail.”

Regardless, it’s clear from the recent experience that a serious financial reform is no longer an option but a necessity to counteract risk undertaking in the financial market.

Moreover, the finance industry being the vehicle for the economic growth, it cannot resist regulations due to the uninsured public funds management by the private sector.

Evidently, the real estate slump exacerbated the liquidity crisis in the global economies viz. Iceland (nicknamed as the “subprime economy”) Ireland, Spain and not sparing the once booming commercial real estate capital – Dubai, UAE,

Leaving the United States not unique in the burgeoning residential and commercial real estate decline.

In terms of stimulating the economic growth, industrialized nations and the emerging markets face a common dilemma – stimulus packages, bailouts and the rising national debt.

Government stimulus programs target specific industries in the domestic economy with the green technology touted as the promising field.

Unequivocally, the green technology should be promoted by all nations big and small besides infrastructure projects and reviving the manufacturing industry.

However, the stimulus activity is bound to create national debt from the budget deficit because of sluggish GDP and the negative current account balance for import-oriented economies like the United States.

U.S Economy:

Although, the multi-trillion dollar deficit has not drastically affected the U.S credit rating as the investor confidence in the U.S market is not lost,

The status quo cannot prolong with the persisting Republican members’ opposition against tax hikes to protect self-interest and special interest.

Notwithstanding their blockade in the financial, health care and energy sector reform.

Therefore, the American electorate must be careful prior to swinging their support to the Republican members in Congress.

The ideologues were responsible for bringing America on its knees under the disastrous Bush-Cheney administration.

Now, the same republican members are determined to stay on the course to debilitate the U.S economy with an utter disregard for the ‘average’ Americans.

While comparing the economies in the stimulus funding, it’s clear that the nations investing in the domestic economy like China, Japan, India, Brazil… have survived the worst crisis through quasi participation.

Private sector project with public capital infusion is seemingly a viable economic strategy to reduce unemployment and curb public outcry over increasing national debt.

It’s attention worthy that President Barack Obama has similarly approached the economic woes with the SBA loans to boost small businesses, tax credits to the corporations and the green sector only to be browbeaten by the “fiscal conservatives” in name only on both sides of the aisle.

Again, something to remember about the so-called “fiscal conservatives” successful derailment of economic progress.

So far, the opposition policy in every national issue is “Penny wise and Pound foolish.”

Not to mention their conduct exemplified in the tarnished U.S image at WEF with,

Communist China scorn democracy by citing the Special Interests’ dominance in American politics.

The statement is not far-fetched except for scapegoating democracy against totalitarianism.

United States should adopt big and bold economic actions to contain the high unemployment and that would be:

Job creation in the infrastructure projects, innovate the manufacturing sector with technology alongside revolutionizing industrial growth on eco-friendly foundation.

Energizing the small businesses and retail industry is equally important to enhance the per capita income, an appropriate inclusion in the economic progress measurement rather than reliance on GDP growth alone.

United States is rich in resources in every aspect with an advantage of being the pioneer across the economic spectrum.

The rumor about United States weak economic status and attempts to denigrate the U.S dollar as the international currency is nothing but smear tactics by the competitors vying for the leading role in the world economy.

What the investors should bear in mind is the U.S economy’s resilience to rebound in the face of worst economic and political crisis and history is testimony to that effect.

In addition, the democratic system is a positive factor in attracting investments within and offshore.

European Economy:

The EU and the ECB (European Central Bank) proposals are pragmatic in many ways.

ECB intervention to pull the European financial markets from the liquidity crisis would facilitate the anticipated credit flow in the union.

Economic setbacks in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Latvia and last but certainly not the least Iceland are significant and cannot be abandoned for it might reach a crescendo irrespective of the trade volume.

Accordingly, the conditional offer from Germany and France to bailout Greece is vital to protect the EU economic interest with Greece being the union member.

The leadership in the Mediterranean nation under the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou is capable of salvaging the dire economic situation.

When the reckless banking sector was bailed out for speculative trading, otherwise gambling of public investments,

The Greek economy with labor capital, entrepreneurial exuberance and political stability deserves EU / IMF /World Bank assistance to survive the economic turmoil.

It would be detrimental to hinder the borrowing opportunity for Greece and other ailing economies predominantly due to the regional impact.

At the same time, Greece and Iceland should be transparent with facts and display fiscal responsibility to the international monetary oversight for creditworthiness.

United Kingdom is right on target in demanding the financial sector to resume credit to the frail economy.

U.K has been forceful in urging the much-required global financial regulations even though not surprisingly, the conservative political faction is against it.

France – Recommendation on the long overdue closing of corporate tax havens is a step in the right direction.

In fact, the rule of thumb for the global economies dealing with budget deficits is to:

Eliminate redundant expenditure

Differ or limit discretionary spending

Scale back unaffordable commitments like wars, conventional stockpiles and nuclear proliferation not barring extravagant agenda like moon travel more for prominence than purpose.

Revision of tariffs and taxation laws to expand the revenue horizon.

It’s imperative to consider tax increases and close tax evasion loopholes through tax havens.

Spending freeze with tax cuts and synonymously tax increases with skyrocketing expenditure would be oxymoron at any given time.

Emerging Markets viz. BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China):

The salient feature in the group is their ability to focus and invest entirely on the domestic economy.

Unlike the United States and NATO, none of the four nations is currently engaged in active warfare though; cross border tension is permanent with contingent defense forces on the periphery.

Still, the four nations ‘combined defense spending falls short of the exponentially escalating U.S military expenditure appropriated for –

Two overt wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,

A proxy war in Yemen with drones and fighter planes provided to the Yemeni forces,

Over and above the U.S military base situated nationally and overseas.

Poignantly China more than Russia is engaged in the lucrative arms race to Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Pakistan, North Korea, war torn Africa – Darfur in Sudan, Congo, Somalia, Guinea, Rwanda…

Yet, not competitive enough to the United States in this respect and confirmed by:

The New York Times article By THOM SHANKER – Thank you.

Published: September 6, 2009

Despite Slump, U.S. Role as Top Arms Supplier Grows

“Despite a recession that knocked down global arms sales last year, the United States expanded its role as the world’s leading weapons supplier, increasing its share to more than two-thirds of all foreign armaments deals, according to a new Congressional study.”

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Economic Synopsis – By Padmini Arhant

BRIC countries impressive performance is expected to continue with the investor confidence higher in these regions than Europe.

Their view on the U.S domestic job creation as isolationism or protectionism do not bode well since the BRIC nations have adapted the domestic investment policy to expedite economic revival.

The irony is the characterization of the United States and Europe adhering to similar strategies as ‘protectionism.’

It’s noteworthy that Brazil, India and China have benefited from globalization with transnational ventures in their shores.

Such anomalies beckon paradigm shift in the globalization concept among the emerging markets.

Some U.S corporations as the global operators echo the sentiments much to the displaced domestic workforce anguish and disappointment.

They remain oblivious to the facts that the United States being the largest consumer base and a major importer is struggling to contain high unemployment, fragile housing market and credit crunch in the financial sector.

U.S economic recovery is paramount for the global economic stability.

Optimize Technological Applications:

World society is more digitalized than before and technology embedded industry maximize efficient output. Incorporating technology in every imaginable field is the cornerstone for the present and future generation.

Green Technology and Climate Change Policy:

Industrialized countries along with developing nations are grappling to arrive at a consensus on climate change policy.

Fortunately there is tremendous enthusiasm towards green technology and the economic powers are reluctant to make the swift transition by renouncing fossil fuel and nuclear power to natural sources like solar, wind and hydrothermal energy.

The main problem lies with the profit guiding politics by the energy behemoths obstructing the fossil fuel and nuclear technology abandonment against all natural elements for energy production.

Life survival and sustenance on the planet is dependent upon clean air, water and food chain maintenance, not achievable without an aggressive climate change policy.

Hybrid policy targeting carbon emissions through carbon tax and cap & trade is the viable solution from the economic and political standpoint, other than possibly winning bipartisanship in the climate bill legislation in the United States.

Humanitarian Issues:

Water scarcity and inadequate food supply is the global challenge confronting humanity.

Emerging markets favoring globalization have a primary responsibility in addressing the plight of the vast majority in their domain rather than exclusively focused on GDP growth.

The population in Africa, Latin America, Asia and the Middle East cannot be ignored by the affluent nations and their $100 billion commitment in economic aid during the G20 meeting reflects meagerness and not eagerness to alleviate suffering on the planet.

Poverty being the reality, the global community can provide to the needy by reining in on personal greed.

Communal development against concentrated growth guarantees a bright future for humanity.

Global progress and prosperity begins with economic equality, social justice and political freedom.

Thank you.

Padmini Arhant

Written by Padmini Arhant · Filed Under Economy, Featured | 3 Comments 

Iranian Uprising – 21st Century

June 20, 2009

Apocalyptic New Era

By Padmini Arhant

The Presidential election results were out in the Islamic Republic of Iran and predictably, the theocratic rule through flawed electoral process declared the incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner, with a landslide victory against the reformist leader Mir Hossein Mousavi of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, recognized as the largest reformist party.

Iranian youth, women and everyone oppressed by the existing regime mourning seeing no hope in the horizon for Iran aligning to the twenty first century nation governance. The re-nomination of the President Ahmadinejad by the un-elected and self-proclaimed clerics under the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei indicates the iron-fist authoritarianism executed as the guardian of the sacred Islamic religion.

The theocratic power claiming to be the representative of peaceful and respectful Islam effectively shackled the Islamic vows – equality, freedom, justice and compassion shared among all, with sheer denial of the humanitarian rights granted by the holy Islam.

Ironically, the election is anything but democratic with the election results not conforming to the actual data in more than one account. According to reliable sources, the higher voter turnout was encouraging and huge enthusiasm among the majority confirmed the readiness for the change that’s long overdue in the Islamic Republic and the entire Middle East. Upon opposition’s refusal to concede to the false ceremonial victory by the current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the streets in Tehran and the holy city Qom reverberated with chants against the undemocratic verdict.

Any ballot recount in selective areas to satisfy the republic with an insatiable appetite for emancipation is equivalent to an illusionist’s performance in charming the tense audience. Tragically, the religious order’s deception of the Islamic faith dedicated to truth, equality and justice for all vilified in the endorsement of killings and violence against peaceful protesters by the paramilitary under the top hierarchy’s direct command, reminiscent of the Tiananmen Square event.

The recent incidents in Tehran and other parts of the nation is a reminder that permanence is not in the laws of nature and change is the natural course of action to prove it. Despite resistance to positive reform, a priority beginning with the free and fair elections, the theocracy in Iran struggling to maintain credibility as the religious force inculcating bias in the contradictory version of democracy dominated by religion over the independent state rule.

Whenever any puppet government controlled by the ultimate religious authority or dynasty challenged to demonstrate democratic values towards the nationals, defiance is inevitable. Therefore, the victims subject to hard line approach viz. muzzling the voice of democracy in the technology-oriented age. Evidently, the Iranian republic determined to free themselves from the prolonged tyrannical rule of law under the guise of Islam – conflicting to the egalitarian religious philosophy.

The current events in Iran is a test for the theocracy led by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the clerics’ respect for the holiness, Prophet Mohammed’s teachings to value humanitarian rights and disavow violence, deceit, disorder in any form or shape. Importantly, the involvement of religion in the state affairs and the Supreme Leader as the head of the state is a gross violation of Islam juxtaposed to Islamic law prohibiting spiritual leaders from aspiring political power, materialistic gains and supremacy.

Autocracy implemented through theocracy is sacrilegious in the highest order.

It is imperative for the Islamic Republic of Iran to honor the will of the people towards democracy with an absolute guarantee of equal rights for all citizens of different faith and ethnicity in the historic Persian land. The reference particularly applies to the persecution and systemic abuse of the Baha’i population along with disregard for the faith until date.

Since the election outcome debunked with reprehensible practices such as vote rigging and unscrupulous means by the state in producing unrealistic victory for their choice of representative effectively disposes the results null and void. Henceforth, the reformist candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi aptly qualifies in requesting the Iranian electorate to recall the nominee, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Guardian Council responsible for the protocol reportedly swayed to the theocratic preference has created a self-dispensable status in the so-called democratic election.

With the overwhelming international support and solidarity for the Iranian moderates in the ongoing political upheaval, the camouflaged autocratic leadership in Iran is on the verge of collapse serving testimony to the apocalyptic new era pledged to deliverance around the world.

The concurrent election results throughout the Middle East, with Iraq rejecting the Iranian supported political and terror faction, Lebanese sidelining the once popular and terror sponsor Hezbollah backed by the troubled Iranian theocracy, Palestine more eager to attain the dream of freedom empowering FATAH over HAMAS is a confirmation of the apocalypse.

Although, credit for changes in the Middle East attributed to the previous and present United States Presidency, the real agent behind the democratic transitioning is the long brewing unprecedented will of the population with technological know-how rising to the occasion comprising free speech and human rights.

Similar scenario witnessed in Egypt initiated by the anti-government centrists and pro-democratic aspirants including the Muslim Brotherhood – the Hosni Mubarak government’s traditional rival. In this instance the moderates in Egypt were disappointed with the omission of Egyptian government’s prolonged human rights violation in President Obama’s Cairo address, even though the objective for detour appears to rest on the potential Egyptian influence on the Arab world in the recognition of Israel and resolving the two-state solutions crisis.

Many outspoken pro-democracy groups operating within and outside of Egypt shared their anguish over a missed historic moment by the United States Presidency to curtail excessive oppression in the Pharaoh land.

Back to Iranian political uprising contributing tremor across the Middle East – it’s no coincidence and remains an affirmation to pervasive democratic movement brought upon not by Super Power aggression instead, through peaceful and powerful populace demand, yet another desirable path in accordance to the apocalypse.

The contemporary political unrest in Iran is likely to subdue the theocracy limiting and possibly eliminating the intervention of religion in the state rule to promote real democracy. As for the reformist leader Mir Hossein Mousavi’s parallel political stance with the opponent President nominee Mahmoud Ahmedinijad regarding Iranian nuclear program and Israel…

The notion between the Israeli Knesset and the White House ambivalence to the controversial re-nomination of the President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad implies – “It’s better to deal with the devil you know rather than the Saint you don’t.”

This posturing by Washington and Jerusalem is disturbing considering the pivotal role by both nations as part of the military industrial complex in the lucrative and prolific nuclear and arms weaponry exhibited by the United States in Iraq and currently in Afghanistan. Likewise, by Israel in the aggression against Palestinians in Gaza in December 2008 accompanied by repeated retaliatory threats to strike Iran’s nuclear site with or without the United States alliance warrants a great deal of concern.

Israel’s selection of President Nominee Ahmadinejad over reformist candidate Mousavi suggests Israel accepting Ahmadinejad’s provocative gesture as an opportunity for military action. Such political maneuvering by Israel could prove immensely detrimental to its own national security other than raising a credibility issue as a viable peace partner in the Middle East.

An oil enriched and Shiite dominant Iran’s strong emergence in the Arab world posed a huge challenge to other oil-abundant nation like Saudi Arabia and others fearing identical fate with the impending overthrow of the political dynasty contrasting political theocracy in Iran, while both kingdoms sharing abandonment of democracy in the legislative rule.

Meanwhile, the massive rally and protests on behalf of the reformist party candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi justified when,

The reformist leader commits Iran towards modern democracy in every aspect of governance,

A nuclear free zone as the concept of nuclear energy program to generate electricity does not fit in with Iran being the third richest nation in oil reserves,

Oil reserves in Iran

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Iran

“Oil reserves in Iran, according to its government, rank third largest in the world at approximately 136 billion barrels (21.6×109 m3) as of 2007, although it ranks second if Canadian reserves of non-conventional oil are excluded. This is roughly 10% of the world’s total proven petroleum reserves.

Iran is the world’s fourth largest oil producer and is OPEC’s second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia. As of 2006 it was producing an estimated 3.8 million barrels per day (600×103 m3/d) of crude oil, equal to 5% of global production.[1] At 2006 rates of production, Iran’s oil reserves would last 98 years if no new oil was found.”

Further, recognize and embrace Israel as a sovereign state,

Last but not the least; relinquish terror sponsorship in Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon including conciliatory partnership via arms supply to belligerent North Korea.

Otherwise, Iran reflecting true reform in alienating from the ideological, theocratic principles and doctrine prevailing over the fundamental democratic values desperately required by the deserving Iranian population.

The imminent victory for peace against violence will testify the strength of populace power in the declining theocratic regime systematically misrepresenting the sacred and peaceful Islam.

The Iranian electorates’ perseverance towards democratic goals will be a trailblazer for other nations to follow suit in the Middle East.

Persian, … šāʾ Allāh (ar | ما شاء الله), which means, "God has willed it". …-

Insha’Allah (إن شاء الله) – Allah Willing.

Thank you.

Padmini Arhant

Written by Padmini Arhant · Filed Under International Politics, Politics | Leave a Comment 

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