Russia – Predicament and Priority

March 18, 2022

Russia – Predicament and Priority

Padmini Arhant

President Vladimir Putin prior to invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 expressed grievance and distress on Kiev government’s failure to implement Minsk 1 and II agreements from 2014 and 2015.

Moscow despite being a signatory to Minsk agreements I and II denied any participation in the Donbas region unrest absolving itself of any responsibility in particular reference to foreign viz. Russian troop withdrawal from eastern Ukraine. In this regard, Moscow violated the Minsk agreement as a signatory of the accord.

Additionally, Moscow is also obligatory to guarantee Ukraine’s security on sovereign rights and territorial integrity as signatory to Budapest Memorandum agreed to by Russia, Britain and the United States in 1994. The Budapest memorandum categorically calls for all three signatories to observe Ukraine’s political independence, sovereignty and borders underscoring the major powers to refrain from military measures against sovereign Ukraine.

Again, Russia defaulted in honoring commitment made in the Budapest memorandum. Russia could have extended necessary support and facilitated peaceful resolution to protect Ukrainian, Donbas residents and Russian security interests.

Moscow then stated the calls from Donetsk and Luhansk separatists leadership to come to their aid from Kiev’s violence as the reason for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Though, the issue could have been addressed without any military intervention from Moscow.

The trilateral Minsk agreements I and II between Kiev, the Donbas separatists leaders and Moscow could have been revisited with necessary adjustments to accommodate the side viz. Kiev arguably not satisfied on the territorial secession in alignment with any nation in any region including Russia disapproval of sedition and segregation of sovereign territory.

The issue could have been resolved with mutual understanding and recognition of security interests on all sides rather than authorizing military invasion of Ukraine.

Moscow could have handled the dispute between Kiev and Donbas separatist groups similar to Moscow’s role in the Armenian and Azerbaijan long standing skirmishes and September – November 2020 war resulting in Moscow brokered ceasefire in November 2020.

Moscow handling of situation against Ukraine drastically escalating violence in air raids is extreme and contradictory to positions maintained earlier of having no interest to invade and occupy Ukraine.

Furthermore, Moscow has detailed the following against the west – the United States and NATO operations.

1. Problem: The United States financed bio labs in Ukraine. According to Moscow’s military, they have documentary evidence to this effect.

Solution: Russia presenting evidence to UN General Assembly to all member nations would clarify the allegations one way or another.

The removal of bio chemicals and shutting down the labs in Ukraine could then be followed to protect Ukrainians, Russians and others in Eastern Europe.

2. Problem: Russia’s specific goals in Ukraine regarding demilitarization and denazification.

There is no doubt the United Stated paid and hired private army and mercenaries viz. Blackwater deeply tainted indulgence in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria and Libya among several other locations with Ukraine one of them in the long list of their widespread involvement since inception of the company wreaked havoc in human rights violations and reckless violent activities never subject to scrutiny nor any accountability.

Blackwater is founded by former U.S. Navy SEAL Erik Prince in 1996 changed name to Xe services LLC in 2009 and thereafter acquired by private investors and renamed U.S. Academi in 2011 retaining the services as proxy army and security contractor albeit proved otherwise on the ground i.e. sabotage peace and security.

The price tag for such service admittedly range from $200,000 – $220,000 a day making only the deep pockets nation afford such extravaganza.

The United States contracted private army Xe Services aka U.S. Academi presence in Ukraine in March 2014 and later led to Maidan square chaos in Kiev in 2014. The tumult rapidly accelerated into U.S. and EU coup d’etat against then democratically elected government of Ukraine.

The western insurrection continued in Kiev with then incumbent President Viktor Yanukovich overthrown from power literally at gun point on global watch much to international dismay.

Notwithstanding, the United States and Britain’s violation of 1994 Budapest Memorandum to abstain from military actions not barring private army such as Blackwater aka Xe services or Academi and any other outfits engagement in Ukraine in 2014 and then onwards leading to status quo.

The United States and EU installed neo-nazi government in Ukraine subsequent to overthrow of President Yanukovych government in 2014 added fuel to rising tensions in Crimea and eastern Donbas region.

Solution: Russia’s complete ceasefire ending air strikes, missiles, rockets and other aerial, marine and ground activities effective immediately in Ukraine is the urgent priority.

The United States deployed private army U.S.Academi  and mercenaries to be removed with instant departure from Ukraine and neighboring NATO ally states to prevent any false operations and otherwise upon Russian ceasefire.

The neo-nazi factions in Ukraine are to be disenfranchised from Ukrainian governance and political power sharing to free Ukraine from undemocratic influence.

The above outlined actions should redress Ukraine and Russia’s security concerns and civilian safety in the embattled zone.

3. Problem: Kremlin’s complaint regarding western weapons supply to Ukraine.

Solution: Kremlin ceasing above specified military operations comprehensively in Ukraine and resuming peaceful negotiations as enunciated in the Ukraine – Russia permanent peace treaty 2022 in this domain would appropriately halt western ammunition delivery to Ukraine.

Western default post Russian ceasefire would be addressed accordingly in the event of such error.

It is a litmus test for all sides on compliance with necessary actions and rules of engagement.

4. Problem: Humanitarian Corridor to allow safe civilian evacuation.

Solution: The termination of Russian military  aggression in entirety besides any foreign participation from any sources in disguise conducting military attacks and assaults on Ukraine’s infrastructure whether areas near nuclear power plants, civilian complexes of any types and other premise should essentially stymie the need for civilians to flee their native territory.

All efforts translated into decisive actions to cease hostility to protect lives of Ukrainians, Russians, International students trapped in the bunkers is yet another priority.

Russian military authority leading the way in ceasefire and withdrawal in this context is crucial for others to follow suit. 

5. Problem: NATO expansion.

Solution: Russia – NATO permanent peace treaty 2022 provided in this domain to be discussed and established in place simultaneously with Ukraine – Russia permanent peace treaty 2022.

The protocol to begin at the immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of forces from Russia.

Meanwhile the exchange of prisoners of war (POW) ensuring safe return of combat personnel on Ukraine and Russian side not excluding volunteers representing Ukrainian line of defense are to be treated humanely in accordance with Geneva convention and international rule of law.

They all have to be released for return back to their country of origin and reunion with their family.

Civilian plight has been enormous as expected in any warfare. The civilians affected in the last 21 days of Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine are to be provided humanitarian assistance and rehabilitation  with ultimate safety and security of their return back home.

Upon compliance of all of these critical and monumental requirements towards peaceful settlement, the sanctions relief against Russian economy to enable Russian population survival and recovery from economic repercussions would be the next phase of priority.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kremlin’s predicament and priorities are effectively dealt in ending violence against Ukraine.

The Russian leadership abandoning continuation of military operations in and around Ukraine and instead adopting peaceful approach are guaranteed to mitigate confrontations and challenges facing Russia and neighbor Ukraine.

Peace to Ukraine and Russia!

Padmini Arhant

Author & Presenter


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