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Russia – Ending Ukraine Invasion

May 16, 2022

Russia – Ending Ukraine Invasion

Padmini Arhant

Reiterating earlier fact on the topic on this site prior to and at the onset of Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, there are no winners in war. The deaths and destruction inflicted on innocent victims in civilian casualties as well as the loss of lives among defense personnel are priceless for warring factions at any given time. Not to mention the economic costs of waging war with no end in sight except dealing with major setbacks in the prolonged battle.

Russia is at the crossroads to choose between ending the nearly three months old conflict and submit to peaceful resolutions with neighbor Ukraine or continue with endless violence through military aggression leading nowhere but exacerbate political, military and social turmoil within own country.

It is not surprising for leaderships at the helm to start the war at whomsoever ill-advise, misconception and miscalculation to invade a sovereign nation or occupy territory near and far. Additionally, the trend in this setting is accepting glory on the so-called victory although as explained above winning a war at the massive expense of lives is hardly a matter of pride and at the same time losing or defeat in a war is usually attributed to any other entity such as weak military operation, intelligence failure etc. The political leadership seldom accept responsibility for any unfavorable outcome. The litmus test often provide clarity on the political head of the state willingness or the lack thereof to assume accountability.

Nonetheless, the Russian President Vladimir Putin is now confronted with not only the unnecessary military intervention in Ukraine extended into ongoing drawn out military assault over sixty days, the Russian leadership is facing serious political challenge within besides rumors on personal health and well being…so on that are least helpful for a nation like Russia.

Notwithstanding the desperation among paid propagandists as their livelihood and disinformation recruits on you tube channel and television networks propagating Global Shadow government scripts misleading naive and gullible audience.

The Russian economy supported by energy supply to Europe and other parts of the world among other essentials like food viz. wheat exports offset western sanctions specifically aimed at fringe assets and sporadic offshore accounts of certain Russian oligarchs in the entire economic sanctions list.

The political stake involves speculations on the current leadership i.e. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s present situation in  office. The Russian citizens on their part would expect information access to Russian status quo. Amid these various developments, Russia’s military engagement in Ukraine burden Russia’s ability to sustain political stability. Whatever internal tensions and tribulations there might be in Kremlin, the Russian President Vladimir Putin upon still maintaining authority or any other successor executing immediate ceasefire bringing the war in Ukraine to permanent conclusion is the only prudent alternative and saving grace for Russia today.

The political power struggle among old guards and new aspirants in Kremlin could implode alongside Russian invasion in Ukraine experiencing significant blows in the battle ground.

Claiming victory in invasion of foreign land is a tall order for invaders witnessed by the world time and time again in the previous and present century. Russian President Vladimir Putin recognition of ground reality in the military and political battle in Ukraine and Russia respectively is perhaps the last opportunity available. Accordingly, prioritizing the termination of military intrusion in Ukraine with focus on peaceful settlement would be the appropriate decision in all fronts considering the brewing political instability in Russia.

The war in Ukraine for Russia is a self-inflicted political chaos deserving far more attention than any ambitions on annexations of territories in eastern Ukraine and subjugation of Ukrainian sovereignty.

Russian President Vladimir Putin or the incumbent authority demonstrating courage and leadership with withdrawal of military forces and all activities on land, sea and air raids conducted since incursion in Ukraine is the only viable option to mitigate political turbulence and tremendous upheaval brought upon Russia.

Never too late to be wise and reverse course to prevent precipitous decline to the point of no return.

Padmini Arhant 

Author & Presenter

PadminiArhant.com

Prakrithi.PadminiArhant.com

Russia – Western Edifice

April 20, 2022

Russia – Western Edifice

Padmini Arhant

The recent exit of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan was largely associated by the subject as western conspiracy behind his incomplete term in office,  though the development is not unique in Pakistan’s politics.

The outgoing Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan also publicly stated during the rally and address to his nation that the former administration was chided by western represented emissary viz. EU and the United States for the ex- Prime Minister’s visit to Moscow at the onset of Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The former Prime Minister Imran Khan drew parallel in this context by citing the next door neighbor and adversary India’s relation with Russia. The former Prime Minister Imran Khan reiterated that economic ties between India and Russia in energy and defense procurement continued slighting western sanctions against Russia.

The former Prime Minister Imran Khan also expressed disappointment and noted western discriminatory practice against his administration in particular reference to the Moscow trip on the eve of Russian invasion of Ukraine which the ex-Prime Minister and his former cabinet colleagues like the ex-foreign minister Shah Mahmood Quereshi said was pre-arranged diplomatic tour long before the Ukraine war.

All said and done – here are the glaring dichotomy in the entire international foreign policy.

First of all, the former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s anti-western anguish doesn’t quite fit into the backdrop of the cricket sports star who has been promoted with extravagant publicity from the United States ally Britain with enthusiastic support from Israel.

The cricket sportsman turned politician Imran khan has overwhelmingly enjoyed special favorable coverage from London all along with national media like BBC including Fleet Street fawning over the cricketer never having enough of Mr. Khan’s profile extending beyond the running commentary of first class cricket test match and international series.  Although the cricketer Imran Khan led the Pakistan cricket team as the captain and not England with the latter even defeated in the final world cup tournament in 1992 at Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) in Melbourne, Victoria, Australia with Pakistan winning the world cup that year.

As for Israel’s affinity towards Mr. Imran Khan, the sentiment is largely related to Mr.Khan’s former wife Jemima Goldsmith, the British citizen of Jewish descent and wealthy background.

The anti-west turn around from the former Prime Minister Imran Khan prior to political turmoil was conspicuously to appease China. Pakistan’s largest creditor and investor China, especially in the complex CPEC – China Pakistan Economic Corridor in Pakistan’s gwadar port is ongoing strenuous undertaking.

On the other hand, Pakistan and Russia relations basically developed following United States and NATO failure in neighboring Afghanistan which in fact is interesting considering Pakistan’s close ties with United States in the aftermath of former Soviet Union’s defeat in Afghanistan earlier. The partners were reversed as situation changed in the two Islamic states.

Russia and Pakistan conducted first joint military exercise in 2016 much to New Delhi’s angst and concern. The relation between the two countries further advanced into arms sales and military training of Pakistan soldiers by Russia in August 2018 and later in 2020 which happens to be during former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s term in office.

It is fair to say Russian defense strategy in the Indian sub-continent pivoted towards Pakistan as Moscow noted New Delhi drawn closer towards United States mostly to attract India with defense procurement from the U.S. despite India until now remains the largest buyer of defense hardware from Russia.

There is a shift in partnering in the Indian sub-continent with Moscow wooing Islamabad to convey New Delhi on Moscow’s discomfort regarding India’s intimacy with the United States in defense as well as other strategic alliance such as Quad in the Indo-Pacific.

While this is going on in South Asia, the European and Russian relation beckons focus.

The Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer visit to Russia on April 12, 2022 after direct meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin were described by Russian academia and scholars as follows.

“The Austrians stick to more balanced approaches than even the Germans, claiming the role of a global mediator and a negotiating platform. This is why, despite being an EU member, they refused to provide weapons to Ukraine,” Associate Professor with the Department of International Relations, Political Science and Foreign Area Studies at the Russian State University for the Humanities Vadim Trukhachev stated.”

“Austria opposes an oil and gas embargo on Moscow. Vienna depends a lot on Russia in terms of energy. Austria used to be a big advocate of Nord Stream 2. And now, they keep stressing that although they support EU sanctions, their national interests should not suffer. Those interests particularly include Russian gas supplies,” Vladimir Schweitzer, Head of the Department for Social and Political Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe noted.”

The major economic power in EU – Germany signed contract with Russia for gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 in 2011 and Nord Steam 2 pipeline back in 2012 during the former German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s term in office.

The five large stake holders in the Nord Stream energy pipeline project are – “Shareholders of the company are the Russian gas company Gazprom (51% of shares), German companies Wintershall Dea and PEG Infrastruktur AG (E. ON) (both 15.5%), the Dutch gas company Gasunie (9%), and the French gas company Engie (9%).

OMV, about 32% of which is owned by the Austrian state, has put around 730 million euros ($813.95 million) into Nord Stream 2. The other financial investors in Nord Stream 2 are Shell (SHEL. L), France’s Engie and Germany’s Uniper (UN01.DE) and Wintershall DEA (WINT. UL)” Feb 27, 2022.

According to International Energy Agency – IEA .org

“In 2021, the European Union imported 155 billion cubic metres of natural gas from Russia, accounting for around 45% of EU gas imports and close to 40% of its total gas consumption. Nobody is under any illusions anymore. Russia’s use of its natural gas resources as an economic and political weapon show Europe needs to act quickly…said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.” – IEA Press Release – March 3, 2022.”

International news agency : “The Hungarian government opposes a ban on Russian energy supplies and will continue to defend its position at meetings of the European Union, the country’s Foreign Ministry, Peter Szijjarto said on Monday. He was taking part in a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg.”

It is abundantly clear from the international reports and western European energy companies stakes in Russian energy production – Nord stream 1 & 2 pipeline projects, the energy inter-dependency between Russia and EU as supplier and consumer respectively continued till date amid ongoing war in Ukraine with EU members like Austria and NATO ally Hungary defending their stance on anti-sanctions against Russian oil & energy.

Juxtaposed Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s similar position on the Moscow trip and energy deals with Moscow emphasized in Pakistan’s national interest unfortunately resulted in the Pakistan former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s ouster from power. 

The ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan’s ties with Moscow synonymous to EU counterparts like Austria, Germany, Hungary and others in Western as well as eastern Europe were treated differently causing political change in the islamic state in South Asia.

Yet another contradiction among EU members is while they remain Russian energy importers quoting national requirement, their supply of arms to Ukraine from some EU states is quoted as aiding Ukraine to defend democracy. Notwithstanding they are financing Russian invasion of Ukraine via energy consumption.

Russia on its part positioned as anti-west and anti-NATO apparently has no problem in supplying energy products to any and all of them maintaining cash flow from economic activities with them amidst bombing and shelling Ukraine for over two months now.

In effect, both EU and Russia fearing security threats from each other in the region fail to realize their symmetrical role in the energy deals contributing to Russian financial resources on the one side and Russia enabling NATO military capability with Russian exported energy on the other end. There is no recognition from either in terms of self-generated security reality.

Ukraine in the middle of this predicament expected to be neutral, bare arms and bear the brunt of nuclear Russia and EU convenient economic policy.

In the whole gamut, the Ukrainian civilians are paying the price with their lives and property destroyed in Russian heavy artillery hitting every possible standing structure in Ukrainian cities and coastal towns of the once beautiful country.

Meanwhile, the western edifice is justified as necessity prioritizing economic interests over own security considering the spill over effects already experienced with Ukrainian refugees forced to flee their homeland to neighboring Poland, Hungary and Moldova…

Above all the possibility of prolonged war in Ukraine becoming the protracted battle across Europe cannot be ruled out with the status quo.

Unwise to fuel the fire for it might sooner than later engulf the entire zone.

Had EU then respected Ukraine’s economic relations with Russia in 2014 and refrained from cooperation with United States violent insurrection overthrowing Ukraine’s democratically elected incumbent government of President Viktor Yanukovich in 2014 over Kiev and Moscow economic treaty, the situation could have been economically beneficial and politically peaceful for Ukraine and eastern Europe unlike the present time.

Not to mention, the western dogma – what is good for the goose not appropriate for the gander.

Padmini Arhant 

Author & Presenter

PadminiArhant.com

Prakrithi.PadminiArhant.com

Ukraine Conflict – World Food Crisis

April 19, 2022

Ukraine Conflict

World Food Crisis

Padmini Arhant

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and ongoing conflict has been catastrophic not only for Ukrainian citizens but also for the rest of the world.

The food crisis is upon the world population with wheat production and exports from Russia and Ukraine to global regions drastically affected since Russian military intervention in Ukraine. 

The population survival impact Russia as well. The economic repercussions outweigh any military and political goals in the war against Ukraine.

All the more reason for Russian Federation and Russian President Vladimir Putin to ceasefire in entirety ending aerial strikes, missiles, rockets and air raids besides naval and ground activities in and around Ukraine. 

The immediate and urgent requirement is for Russia and Ukraine to resume peace talks with a sincere commitment to resolve the conflict peacefully through dialogue and discourse abandoning the current aggression and violence. 

Padmini Arhant 

Author & Presenter

PadminiArhant.com

Prakrithi.PadminiArhant.com

According to International report-

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: One fifth of world’s population about to face food crisis

“The global food price index has reached historic highs as wheat prices rose by 20% in March. According to the United Nations’ estimates, the Ukrainian conflict is putting 1.7 bln people around the world at risk of hunger, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

“Russia is one of the major wheat exporters, accounting for about five percent of the world’s total. The special operation has sent wheat prices soaring to record highs.

Forecasts say that Ukraine’s wheat exports will halve, so the market is going to face a shortage of 9.5 million tonnes of wheat. Besides, countries may fail to receive wheat from Russia because of delivery and payment issues stemming from political reasons. Certain countries are extremely likely to face starvation.”

The overall food crisis is creating risks for Russia as well, said TeleTrade Chief Analyst Mark Goikhman. Logistics disruptions may bring down Russia’s crop exports, and accordingly, the revenues of farmers and the country’s budget will drop.

“Russia is unlikely to face food shortages but food prices may continue to rise,” Leading Analyst at Otkritie Investment Oleg Syrovatkin emphasized.”

Ukraine – End to Russian Aggression and Violence

April 11, 2022

Ukraine – End to Russian Aggression and Violence

Padmini Arhant

The post will feature relevant and critical questions seeking direct response and actions from the Russian President Vladimir Putin – the head of the Russian Federation and chief authority authorizing and conducting relentless bombing, shelling in Mariupol, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Sumy leading to decimation of sovereign Ukraine. 

Not to mention the grotesque violence and inhumane war crimes committed against innocent civilians in Bucha, Irpin and other towns and territories where Ukrainian population have been subject to serious human rights violations thus far with no end in sight. 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022 and continued into the second month with massive destruction of lives and infrastructure. 

What is the end game for the Russian President Vladimir Putin?

When is the end if at all anything along that line considered as the option in the so-called special operations from Russia evolved into endless massacre, mass graves and atrocities by distraught, disillusioned and distressed Russian forces on the ground and air deployed in the most violent aggression? 

What happened to the peace talks between Ukraine and Russian teams that were in progress to mitigate the crisis?

Why is the Russian President Vladimir Putin committed to violence and prolonged bombardment of Ukraine rather than investment of resources and political will towards peaceful resolution with Ukraine?

These and more questions along with in-depth proposal to wind the Russian military intervention in Ukraine will be presented shortly.

More on the topic will resume with other content. 

Padmini Arhant

Author & Presenter

PadminiArhant.com

Prakrithi.PadminiArhant.com

Ukraine War – Double Jeopardy

April 1, 2022

Ukraine War – Double Jeopardy

Padmini Arhant

Ukraine is confronted with Russian aerial shelling on one side and simultaneously western shortcomings in supply of useful effective combat military ammunition resulting in severe damages to infrastructure and civilian areas in Mariupol and other war zones in eastern and northern Ukraine. 

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky’s cry for air defense system and artillery from the west to limit extensive bombing and air strikes by Russia is yet to be heard or noticed thus far. The Ukraine President address to all western Parliaments and Congress emphasizing the urgent need on the defensive military equipment is not being responded much to Russia’s favor in raining aerial bombardment. 

Ukraine left to fend for itself without adequate military defense mechanism ranging from tanks, missiles to efficient precision air and ground anti-aircraft, counter air and air retaliation is a major factor in preventing substantial structural destruction in civilian dwellings and residential complex. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s public statement that western military delivery comprising pistols and air rifles without the above outlined heavy duty ammunition is indicative of frustration and disappointment. The weapons cache from the west apparently not provided free of cost with Ukraine charged for the military provisions in billions of dollars as per Ukrainian authority.

Accordingly, the Ukrainian military and political authority request to the west to meet the appropriate military armament for the price is reasonable and fair.

Making matters worse are the Russian energy procurement by Germany, India and others categorically ignore western sanctions and continue fueling the Russian firepower into the second month of Ukraine invasion. 

In a way, Ukraine is expected to defend their sovereignty with limited or non-resourceful military power against the aggressor’s relentless air raids reducing any and every building and residential apartments to rubbles in the most disproportionate violence witnessed since Russian invasion on February 24, 2022.

The western role in this regard is significantly confined to suit western energy requirements viz. energy dependence on Russia and military deficiency in enabling Ukraine to mitigate aerial bombing and cluster munitions dropped on Ukraine. 

The west and others’ energy imports from Russia alongside declaring to assist Ukraine in humanitarian aid and other form of assistance are essentially facilitating double jeopardy against Ukraine. 

Nonetheless, despite substantial military might not barring nuclear status of Russia, the Ukrainian will and resolve to defend their motherland and territorial rights are admirable.

As stated earlier in this domain, the right not the might wins the battle regardless of extreme means and fury from the unrelenting invader having suffered  enormous casualties and invited economic collapse in the domestic front. 

The peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul reportedly showing signs of progress is to be translated into action with immediate Russian ceasefire, ending air assaults and withdrawal of forces from Ukrainian territory. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin having defaulted on own positions prior to Ukraine invasion and thereafter changing course i.e. pivoting from military attacks to meaningful peaceful negotiations with Ukrainian leadership representing Ukraine citizens is the priority and constructive strategy to resolution. 

The Russian policy to regroup and reorganize in the attempt to prolong or protract the war is egregious and not guaranteed to produce desirable outcome.

The only reality is the Russian invasion draining the debilitated Russian economy and demoralizing the disillusioned Russian military force and para militia from Chechen, Siberia, Moldavia and Belarus…contracted in the warfare. 

The sensible and rational approach is for Russia to conclude offense and hostility against Ukrainian population. The Ukrainian people are subject to misery with extended Russian relatives on both sides experiencing pain and suffering in the tragedy inflicted on them. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has the choice to welcome peace and desperately required economic growth and development for Russians paying the price along with their fellow citizens – the Ukrainians neighbor and family in Ukraine. 

Peace to independent sovereign Ukraine and Russia!

Padmini Arhant 

Author & Presenter

PadminiArhsnt.com

 Prakrithi.PadminiArhant.com 

Russian Energy Clients

March 24, 2022

Update: Russia Invasion of Ukraine.

Kremlin’s evasion on Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu whereabouts is intriguing. The Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu public appearance was noted in the Moscow televised National Security Council meeting on March 11 briefing the Russian President Vladimir Putin on the ongoing war.

The Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is known to be one of the key war strategists in President Vladimir Putin’s so-called special operations against Ukraine.

The Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu’s absence during the critical time raise questions and speculations all around.

The information regarding Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s reported truancy quoting alleged ill-health and the other assumption on the Minister Shoigu’s purported defection to Finland across the Russian Border could all be laid to rest with Kremlin’s transparency on the matter.

However, the confirmation on the latest top Kremlin aide and prominent official Anatoly Chubais’s resignation over disapproval of Ukraine war is an acknowledged fact.

Importantly, the highest Kremlin figure Anatoly Chubais is notably the former boss of the incumbent President Vladimir Putin during the latter government position in then President Boris Yeltsin’s term in office.

Accordingly, the high-profile Kremlin member Anatoly Chubais’s departure from the political circle and the country is self-explanatory on internal dissent within on the Ukraine military invasion.

Padmini Arhant 

Author & Presenter

PadminiArhant.com

Prakrithi.PadminiArhant.com

———————————————————————————-

Russian Energy Clients

Padmini Arhant

In the normal environment, the economic activity between Russia and the rest of the world would be understandable.

However, lured by discounted price on cheap energy imports from Russia subsequent to the belligerent invasion and ongoing merciless shelling of cities and civilian areas in neighboring Ukraine, those forging energy deals with the aggressor at this time are essentially declaring themselves contributors to violence against Ukrainian population.

Not to mention the subjugation of Russian citizens with conscription and indefinite gag order accompanied by arrests on peaceful dissent against unnecessary war.

The relentless air raids and hypersonic missiles in Mariupol, Kharkiv and other cities in Ukraine forcing children, expectant mothers and critically ill patients run for their life besides turning 10 millions or more Ukrainians into refugees bear on the energy purveyors slighting ethical and legal consequences related to economic sanctions in condemnation of military strikes in Ukraine.

The worst is among several prioritizing self-interests over human lives targeted in the continuous air assaults against Ukrainians reveal true colors in discrimination of human tragedy.

The so-called world’s largest democracy in the Indian sub-continent, South Asia and others in western Europe maintaining economic ties taking advantage of Russian low cost energy are directly financing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine civilians right now.

No wonder Kremlin is now openly and defiantly stating they would not hesitate to include nuclear weapons citing any possible existential threat to Nuclear Titan Russia from the non-nuclear Ukraine defending their sovereign rights.

The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has emphasized any deployment of peacekeeping troops in response to Poland’s suggestion as direct war between Russia and NATO.

The Russian Foreign Minister ignoring the fact, Poland is now dealing with tremendous influx of Ukrainian refugees – courtesy President Vladimir Putin’s so-called special operations carried out indiscriminately leveling every standing building and civilian apartments in Ukraine.

What about UN peace keeping force to facilitate humanitarian aid and safe evacuation of civilians in the daily bombing aimed at civilian premise?

Is that objectionable as well to Moscow?

Moscow has many legitimate grievances with respect to Donbas region violence in the past eight years accounting for loss of lives in that part of Ukraine.

Additionally, Moscow has repeatedly expressed concerns over the United States and western funded bio labs endangering lives worldwide.

Agreed, these are valid claims and deserve global attention and permanent solution banning efforts and means harming lives anyhow anywhere by anyone now or in the future.

Nonetheless, Moscow’s military campaign against civilians in Ukraine lasting a month has critically damaged Kremlin’s moral stance to raise issues in the above regard.

Those killing innocent lives declining call on ceasefire in the month long unprovoked conflict not only in self-denial of  inflicting deaths and devastation but also justifying the violent crime as personal goals with no end in sight. Such disposition place them in quandary and hypocrisy.

There was a time prior to the invasion of Ukraine when Moscow could represent at UNSC and other international forum drawing United States and western powers attention to issues threatening lives such as bio labs and the western share of military interventions in foreign land.

Unfortunately, now Moscow having revived past Soviet era aspirations on territorial annexations via foreign invasion and occupation, relevantly not shying away from stating the possibility of using nuclear weapons in the Ukraine battle unarguably create a huge credibility factor for Moscow’s representation as moral authority on global affairs.

Finally, the subsidized energy offers from Moscow to energy dependent clients in western Europe, South Asia and other parts of the world are conscientiously participating in the Russian nuclear threat laden warfare against Ukraine with inevitable protraction in the region and beyond upon Kremlin’s military engagement not brought to conclusion effective immediately.

These participants are to be reminded that their egregious decision purely to serve own requirements are fueling Kremlin’s fire power rather than dousing the flames consuming lives and living space in the war zone.

The energy flow continuing without any stipulation from these states on energy consumption at the least insisting Moscow end the senseless violence in Ukraine and commit to meaningful peace talks with neighbor Ukraine classify as reckless myopic opportunism. 

The fire engulfing the far away land sooner than later hitting own turf is not a remote but a probable cause to act and avert such calamity in self-protection if not for those victims dealing with the extraordinary ordeal.

Padmini Arhant 

Author & Presenter

PadminiArhant.com

Prakrithi.PadminiArhant.com

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